The assembly of the 1 st Guards Tank Army 250 km from Ukraine’s northern border has served what is probably its prime purpose – forcing Nato members and the European Commission to think long and hard about the (dire) consequences of extending Article 5 coverage to Ukraine, and to decide firmly not to do that. It appears that no Nato soldiers will be sent to die in any ditches to defend Ukraine.Īs far as that goes, the Riga meeting will be a source of considerable comfort to Moscow, one of whose high-level goals is to prevent Nato from accepting Ukraine as a member. Since Ukraine is not a member of Nato, the principle of mutual defence enshrined in Article 5 of the Treaty does not apply, and Stoltenberg was clear that it would not. To summarise, Stoltenberg expects Nato members to provide equipment (more on that in a moment), training, and to agree heightened sanctions on Russia if the latter attacks Ukraine. Statements and interview answers offered up in Riga certainly left no room for miscalculation or misunderstanding in Moscow. In the words of Stoltenberg himself, “…we…need to remove any room for miscalculation or misunderstanding about Nato’s resolve and commitment to protect and defend all Allies”.
The following day Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics held press conferences and gave one-on-one interviews, clearly carefully co-ordinated to send unambiguous messages to Moscow on the likely future actions of Nato members. Members of Nato’s North Atlantic Council met in Riga on 30 November, where Ukraine and Russia naturally topped the agenda.
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